This is a machine-translated text that may contain errors!
Knowing that threats exist is good, but it helps little if you don’t know which threats are most relevant to your system. A risk analysis helps you prioritize: what should you protect, what can go wrong, and what should you do about it?
What is a risk analysis?
A risk analysis is a systematic review where you:
- Find out what can go wrong
- Assess how likely it is
- Assess how serious the consequence is
- Propose measures to reduce the risk
You don’t need to be a security expert to do this. It’s about thinking systematically.
Step by Step
1. Value Assessment: What do we have?
Before you can protect something, you need to know what you have. List the most important assets in the system:
| Asset | Example | Why important? |
|---|---|---|
| Data | User data, project files | Cannot be recreated |
| Services | Web server, email, file storage | People depend on them |
| Hardware | Servers, network equipment | Costs money and time to replace |
| Reputation | The trust users have in the system | Difficult to rebuild |
2. Risk Identification: What can go wrong?
Think through what can threaten your values:
| Risk | Description |
|---|---|
| Ransomware | Files are encrypted and ransom is demanded |
| Power outage | Servers and networks go down |
| Disk failure | Data is lost |
| Phishing | Someone gives away passwords |
| Misconfiguration | A change that takes down a service |
| Natural disaster | Fire, water damage, thunderstorm |
3. Assess Probability and Consequence
For each risk, you assess two things on a scale (e.g. 1-5):
- Probability: How likely is this to happen?
- Consequence: How serious is it if it happens?
Risk Value = Probability × Consequence
| Risk | Probability (1-5) | Consequence (1-5) | Risk Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disk Failure | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| Ransomware | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| Phishing | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| Power Outage | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Misconfiguration | 3 | 3 | 9 |
The higher the risk value, the more priority you should give to the measures.
Risikomatrise
A risk matrix visually displays this with colors:
- 🟢 Low (1-6): Acceptable risk, but keep an eye on it
- 🟡 Medium (7-14): Should have measures in place
- 🔴 High (15-25): Requires immediate action
4. Propose Measures
For each risk with high or medium value, propose measures:
| Risk | Measure |
|---|---|
| Disk failure | Backup (3-2-1 rule), RAID on servers |
| Ransomware | Updates, offline backup, training |
| Phishing | Awareness, MFA, email filtering |
| Misconfiguration | Documentation, change log, snapshot before change |
5. Document and Follow Up
The risk analysis is not a one-time exercise. Write it down, share it with the team, and review it regularly (e.g., every six months or after an incident).
Task 1 - Perform a Mini-Risk Analysis
Choose a system you are familiar with (e.g., your own PC, a VM you have set up, or the school network) and go through the steps:
- List 3-5 values (what is important?)
- Identify 3-5 risks (what can go wrong?)
- Give each item a probability and consequence (1-5)
- Suggest measures for those with the highest risk value
Use a spreadsheet or a simple table in Markdown.
Summary
- A risk analysis helps you prioritize security measures
- The steps are: value assessment, risk identification, assessment of probability/consequence, measures and documentation
- Risk value = probability × consequence
- Risk analysis is not a one-time exercise, it should be updated regularly
You can download a risk assessment template from Datatilsynet.